how much

to the left or the right we are (i.e. the amplitude of oscillation) in the given moment, because we haven't two ideally pure left- or right- wing parties in the Parliament. Neither is it possible to establish exactly the period, so that if from the first utmost left point (say, in the upper part of the figure) to the second such one have gone 10 (conditional) years, and from the second to the third — 15 years, then this can be observed as sufficient precision. But this, that we can't use this method for good quantitative estimates, does not mean that it is bad in

qualitative

regard, because it accurately reflects gradually decreasing oscillations around given steady state value, which is naturally to accept in the middle.

     [ * The picture, alas, is missing, so that you are forced to believe blind to my explanations (but it was not pretty accurate, because I have drown it with the mouse only). ]

     What is good in this qualitative model, above all, is that based on it can be made interesting

conclusions

. The first and most important observation in this case is that there exist two alternative ways for diminishing of the steepness of movement (according to the horizontal time axes), namely:

1)

via

shrinking of exponential enveloping

curve, which defines the rate of damping (not shown on Fig.1.), what corresponds to the curve "1" (the blue one), which falls down more smoothly, because it has the same period, but does not reach such great amplitudes; or

2)

via

extending of oscillatory process

on a longer period, what corresponds to the curve "2" (the red one).

     Both ways lead to relatively equal slope (steepness) on the

corresponding

parts of curves 1 and 2 (or from the beginning to the first semi-period, to the place where the dashes with the numbers are put, where they fall down; or later on, from the lowest position till the end of the first period, where they rise up — but everywhere on linear regions they move almost in parallel). Again must be clarified, that it can be argued about the point how much the slopes are equal, but in all cases they are less than the corresponding slope of curve 0 (the black one). And we pay such attention on the slopes, because it is natural to accept that the goal of each movement is to reach maximally fast damping by

minimally possible steepness

, i.e. to have smoothly and crisis-free movement to the new steady state value (to the horizontal axis). And, hence, such movement can be had, either when the curve is damped (its amplitude falls) absolutely faster, i.e. the curve 1 (what is the best variant), or when it damps relatively faster, i.e. the curve 2 (where its amplitude diminishes less, but then for a longer period of time), what in fact happens absolutely slower than the other variant (but is also painless).

     Let us now look more precisely at both variants, calling for help the pulse technique, where is explained that

the period of oscillation is characteristic of the system

(e.g., for the pendulum, of its length), where

the damping

of the exponent

is characteristic of the environment

(e.g., for the pendulum, this means whether it oscillates in air or in water). In our political case the "system" is the whole nation, the given country, from the point of view of its economic abilities, social consciousness and unity of the voters, of its natural conditions, traditions, and so on, i.e. this is such thing which can't be (at least this is not easy) changed. On the other hand the damping of the exponent depends on the environment, and in this case it is political, i.e. these are the parties, which help (or hinder) the given nation to reach the steady state value of equilibrium, and on this environment is possible, and also

necessary

, to show influence and change it.

     In other words, this means that in countries, where the political environment converges faster to the center, is possible to reach smooth transition also by relatively short period of oscillation, what speaks about powerful economies, socially conscientious and united voters (for example, in Hungary the semi-period is about five years, in Czech Republic and Slovakia, if we subtract a pair of years in view of their separation, as additional problem with which they have had to cope, it may become again so much, or a bit more). At the same time, in countries with worse convergence of political powers, the single possibility for smooth and crisis-free transition consists in longer period of oscillation (i.e. the adaptivity of their system is worse, what is related also with bigger social disagreements, which expresses themselves in worse convergence of political powers, as, for example, in Poland, if we take for beginning of the movement to the right roughly 1985, what will give a semi-period of about 9-10 years). Where there are also countries in which the political environment is so confronted, the social unity of masses so weak, that the single possibility to hold the situation from catastrophic slumping during the period of transition is in the multiple extension (slowing) of the oscillating process (for example in Russia, or rather in the former Soviet Union, where the desert of the great "Gorbi" is in this, that he succeeded to significantly

slow down

this process in the first several years with his

perestroika

, otherwise, by practically zero-valued exponent, should have happened obvious slumping in the civil war, which, for the moment, they nearly managed to avoid; so or otherwise, but there already a

quarter-period

of oscillation, even taking out 2-3 years for disintegration of their empire, has reached 6-7 years, what gives an expected semi-period of approximately 15 years). One may boldly state that, as it seems, the semi-period by the worst possible conditions

can't

exceed one generation (20 - 25 years).

     Let us now return to Bulgaria. Judging by a number of indicators